From Farm To Future

While much of the global focus has been on disruptions caused by climate change, market volatility, and resource scarcity, conflict-driven shocks are once again taking centre stage.

At the time of writing in June 2025, the escalating Israel–Iran conflict serves as a reminder that geopolitical instability can further strain and fracture already fragile global systems overnight. In this context, resilient food supply chains are no longer just a business priority – they are a global imperative. Businesses worldwide are rethinking how they source, produce, and distribute food, recognising that long-term stability depends on adaptive, trusted relationships with farmers.

This article explores the frontlines of resilient food system design – from partnerships to scalable innovations that balance sustainability and security. A resilient food system means not just securing food supplies but ensuring that smallholder farmers and agricultural workers worldwide are empowered with fair prices, access to funding opportunities, and are given a voice in shaping sustainable solutions.

Despite modest gains in agricultural output, climate, conflict, and compliance hurdles are preventing that food from flowing freely and equitably; thus, global food markets remain fragile. FAO forecast for 2024–2025 showed slight increases in the production of cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, dairy, and meat, supported by relatively favourable weather in some areas and expanded cultivation. However, supply recovery remains uneven, and price volatility persists due to persistent disruptions. Cereal production was expected to rise modestly, though global stocks stay tight, pressured by strong demand and reduced yields in parts of Africa and Asia. Rice production has been recovering after El Niño-related shortfalls in South and Southeast Asia, but prices remain high. According to FAO, vegetable oil prices rose 33.5% year-on-year in early 2024, driven by weather-related crop losses in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe, biodiesel demand, and Ukraine war-related supply disruptions. Sugar prices jumped to 26.7% in 2023 due to poor harvests in India and Thailand, but fell 13.2% in 2024 as output recovered, especially in Brazil. Dairy and meat prices also climbed by 17% in the case of meat, driven by high feed costs, limited exports, and ongoing conflict-related constraints.

Meanwhile, coffee markets are under pressure from climate impacts and compliance with new regulatory requirements such as the EU Deforestation Regulation, which may reduce market access for some producers and lead to intermittent shortages. Also, conflict and insecurity in key trade regions have further exacerbated the risk of scarcity: in April 2024, a hijacked rice freighter in Haiti lost much of its cargo, and a wheat shipment from Ukraine to East Africa was spoiled after a three-month delay due to regional conflict.

Together, these converging pressures – climatic, geopolitical, logistical, and regulatory – highlight the fragility and interdependence of global food systems. They set the attention on how even modest production gains may not translate into stable availability or affordability for consumers, and in some cases, may result in actual product shortages on store shelves.

Building resilience has become a strategic imperative, and businesses are increasingly shifting to adaptive systems capable of absorbing shocks and ensuring continuity. This transformation involves embedding resilience into sourcing, operations, and partnerships across the chain (Figure 1, overleaf).

Figure 1. Interventions driving supply chain adaptability and resilience

Table 1. Summary of key strategies for building resilient food systems, highlighting interventions at production, supply chain, and policy levels

Table 2. Major challenges constraining the implementation of resilience strategies across global food systems

Diversification, particularly of sourcing locations and supplier networks, is the core principle. Relying on a single region/producer can make businesses vulnerable to multiple crises. Therefore, according to BCG’s 2025 report on agrifood resilience, companies are now actively reshaping their procurement strategies to include regional or local suppliers along with global partners, reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience.

Strategies that can be put in place include:

• Diversifying crop sources by exploring underutilized or climate-resilient options – such as buckwheat, flax, or watermelon seeds – for snack production, especially those suited to varying soil and climate conditions in alternative growing regions (e.g., Eastern Europe, Central Asia, or parts of sub- Saharan Africa).

• Regenerative agriculture, by supporting farming practices that restore soil health, retain water, and enhance biodiversity, is thought to actively mitigate upstream production risks.

• Digitalisation coupled with regenerative agriculture, which allows for precision agriculture. Such practices aim to improve productivity and build predictability and responsiveness into the supply chain. According to a former BCG report, digital integration is now seen as a catalyst for resilience, enabling companies to react faster to supply-demand fluctuations and environmental risks.

• Long-term procurement contracts are another foundational element that provides farmers with guaranteed purchase volumes and stable pricing aligned with sustainability targets. This way, businesses reduce the financial uncertainty while increasing sustainability-linked investments.

• Beyond field-level interventions, several agribusinesses and local cooperatives are jointly investing in shared cold storage facilities and improved transport networks. This co-investment helps reduce post-harvest losses of perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, while also easing logistical bottlenecks caused by unpredictable events. Such collaborative infrastructure development is especially impactful in the region, where gaps in storage and transport capacity often exacerbate the effects of climate shocks and volatile market conditions, ensuring more stable supply chains and better income for farmers.

• Financial support, such as crop insurance, climate-indexed finance, and blended capital tools, helps smallholders against extreme weather and price volatility. For instance, climate-indexed insurance, which pays out based on weather data rather than individual losses, helps smallholder farmers to protect their incomes against droughts and floods. Additionally, blended capital funds are combining public and private resources to provide affordable loans and grants for climate-resilient farming practices.

Complementing more ‘conventional’ approaches, cutting-edge technologies are beginning to reshape how resilience is built across food systems. Precision Agriculture and Smart Farming (e.g., IoT sensors and AI-driven analytics) are revolutionizing farming practices, enabling real-time monitoring of crop health, soil conditions, and resource usage, leading to optimized yields and reduced environmental impact. The State of Food and Agriculture: Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security discusses how Smart irrigation systems adjust watering schedules based on soil moisture levels, conserving water and enhancing crop resilience. watering schedules based on soil moisture levels, conserving water and enhancing crop resilience.

Beyond precision farming, AI and big data analytics are being used for predictive modelling of climate risks, outbreaks, and market fluctuations, allowing proactive responses. Blockchain technology enhances supply chain transparency by providing records of product journeys from farm to table, ensuring traceability, authenticity, reducing fraud, and increasing consumer acceptance (e.g., showcase of ethical sourcing practices). Climate-adaptive agriculture, alternative proteins, and cultured foods are gaining momentum as consumers seek sustainable and ethical food options. The development of heat/drought-tolerant varieties and pest-resistant strains is expected to increase food security amid the weather extremes and climate change, while the production of lab-grown meats and animal-free proteins aims to reduce the environmental footprint of traditional livestock farming. In addition to challenges related to scalability, cost, and regulatory burdens, GFI reports that upcoming market growth and increasing consumer acceptance will create further opportunities for innovation, production, and trade at lower costs.

Some steps are already underway across the food industry with leading companies having moved beyond traditional sourcing to invest in regenerative practices, long-term contracts, and digital tools, generating measurable environmental and economic benefits. These efforts provide clear evidence that building resilience is more than just a theoretical concept.

Collaboration across the chain

The newly elected European Commission has placed agriculture and food systems high on its agenda, outlining its priorities in a revised strategic vision for the sector. A key element of this vision is simplifying regulation and attracting younger generations into farming. In line with this policy shift, food businesses are increasingly moving beyond transactional models to form deeper partnerships with farmers, anchored in knowledge sharing, shared risk, and long-term commitments. These collaborative approaches are not only improving sustainability outcomes but also enhancing the resilience of supply chains facing climate, market, and geopolitical shocks.

Regenerative agriculture in action

A clear sign of this shift is the surge in corporate investment in regenerative agriculture, with multinational companies investing heavily in training farmers in regenerative and climate-smart practices. Through the Nescafé Plan 2030, more than 1,400 field staff and agronomists trained over 200,000 farmers across 16 countries in regenerative practices such as:

• optimized fertilization,

• mulching,

• soil cover,

• composting.

Nescafé, Nestlé’s largest coffee brand, has already exceeded its 2025 goal: as of 2024, 32% of its coffee is sourced from farms using regenerative practices, surpassing the original 20% target. This also has other measurable results, such as 20–40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per kilogram of green coffee, distribution of 21m plantlets to rejuvenate aging coffee farms, strategic B2B collaborations that integrate business training with agronomic support, helping farmers improve profitability and resilience. Nestlé is not alone in this approach. Danone’s ‘Farming for Generations’ initiative partners with over 50,000 farmers across 20 countries, co-developing regenerative practices that enhance soil health, animal welfare, and emissions reduction. These partnerships not only strengthen the company’s dairy and plant-based supply chains but also help Danone meet its broader climate and sustainability commitments. Olam Food Ingredients funds solar dryers and community storage hubs in West Africa to support cocoa and coffee farmers.

Long-term procurement contracts

Long-term procurement contracts are providing farmers with the income security guaranteeing purchase volumes and stable prices, much needed to invest in sustainable practices. Mars, Mondelez, and Nestlé, under the Cocoa & Forests Initiative, offer multi-year contracts tied to sustainability and deforestation targets, ensuring price stability for farmers and reinforcing sustainable practices. While multi-year, sustainability-linked contracts under CFI have driven measurable improvements in traceability (e.g., over 80% of direct cocoa supply now traceable to the farm level in some countries), agroforestry (mapping of over 184,000 farms in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, and distribution of millions of tree seedlings), and carbon mitigation, providing farmers with economic security. Yet achieving systemic, landscape-wide deforestation reduction remains a work in progress.

Digital tools

Alongside physical investments, digital agriculture is becoming a critical enabler of farmer–business collaboration. Technology platforms allow both sides to monitor climate, soil conditions, and crop health in real time, enhancing precision, reducing input costs, and increasing productivity. AB InBev uses its SmartBarley platform to share AI-driven agronomic insights with barley growers, helping optimize water usage, fertilizer applications, and yield predictions – enhancing productivity and resource efficiency.

These platforms enable precision agriculture, reduce input costs, and improve yield reliability, critical for resilience. AI tools are leveraged to accelerate both the production and regulatory approval of cultured (lab-grown) foods in several impactful ways, spanning product development, regulatory approval, and manufacturing scale-up. A few startups are already incorporating AI to automate bioprocesses and refine product formulation.

Farmers and experts stress that resilience depends on strong, trusted partnerships, access to finance, and practical support for adopting sustainable practices. Giovanni Muñoz of the FAO Investment Centre noted, ‘In regions where farmers are advancing agriculture through robust organizations, they can access financing at favourable rates, benefiting from economies of scale.’ Similarly, Marike de Peña, co-founder of the Banelino cooperative in the Dominican Republic, warned that ‘many small farmers probably will pull out if they don’t get some extra value in production’, about the added cost of compliance with new sustainability regulations.

Company leaders also highlight the importance of long-term contracts and digital tools. According to Dave McKay, President and CEO of Royal Bank of Canada, ‘Farmers have embraced climate-smart agricultural practices. Now it’s time for business leaders and policy-makers to fully support them’ through coordinated initiatives and financial incentives.

In agreement, US Farm Credit leaders found that ‘farmers who used to cover crops for five years or more saved over $50 per acre compared to those just starting,’ emphasising how finance can support long-term resilience.

Although these voices collectively underscore that collaboration and engagement across the chain are essential for building truly resilient food systems, persistent challenges remain and complicate progress.

Despite efforts, food businesses and farmers face significant hurdles in the implementation of resilience strategies. Financing gaps remain a primary challenge, particularly for smallholder farmers with limited financial liquidity, limited access to funding options, and risk aversion from lenders due to perceived instability in agriculture. Limited access and knowledge gaps in advanced technologies and digital tools further restrict small-scale producers from fully adopting precision agriculture or climate adaptation practices.

Policy inconsistencies and regulatory fragmentation across regions also create uncertainty, undermining long-term planning and investments in sustainable supply chains. For instance, while the European Union pushes ambitious Green Deal targets and the Farm to Fork strategy, some Member States have slower or conflicting national policies on pesticide use or fertilizer regulations, creating confusion for companies operating across borders. Also, the ban on deforestation-linked imports has not been adopted globally, and this complicates the compliance for global agribusinesses.

Of note, the regulation has also faced pushback from major industry players like Mondelēz, who argue that the supply chain is not yet ready for full compliance and have called for delays in its implementation. Likewise, free trade agreements may prioritize export volumes without integrating sustainability criteria, clashing with domestic environmental regulations and complicating supply chain alignment. Other socio-economic barriers, such as land tenure insecurity, gender inequality, and limited education, continue to constrain resilience-building efforts at the grassroots level.

Building resilience in global food systems is no longer optional: it is essential. The promising steps taken by leading food companies and their farmer partners provide a roadmap for scaling regenerative practices, digital innovation, and equitable partnerships. To safeguard food security amid climate change, geopolitical tensions, and market shocks, the entire value chain must collaborate, invest, and innovate. This requires navigating complex regulatory landscapes – harmonising compliance with evolving policies across regions, which is essential to support scalable and sustainable solutions.

As the food industry continues to adapt, aligning business strategies with clear regulatory frameworks will be essential for a resilient global food chain that can withstand future climate, market, and geopolitical shocks, while ensuring food security for the generations to come.